The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (28 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 988 | 874 | 66% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1149 | 1058 | 63% | 2024-09-22 | Won |
| 1174 | 1234 | 41% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 998 | 999 | 50% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 865 | 890 | 46% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1421 | 14% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1039 | 74% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1131 | 1099 | 55% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1052 | 61% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 884 | 861 | 53% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 967 | 995 | 46% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1031 | 1234 | 24% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1094 | 988 | 65% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 1099 | 999 | 64% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 999 | 1027 | 46% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1131 | 45% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1172 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1099 | 45% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 919 | 1160 | 20% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 1029 | 1042 | 48% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1172 | 1099 | 60% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1097 | 1159 | 41% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 952 | 1056 | 35% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1141 | 1169 | 46% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1048 | 62% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 998 | 975 | 53% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1068.3 vs 1068.6 has a 49.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).