The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (29 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1187 | 1119 | 60% | 2026-06-06 | | Won |
| 1011 | 837 | 73% | 2025-05-08 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-09-22 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-05-09 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-04-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2023-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2022-06-10 | | Won |
| 1198 | 1039 | 71% | 2022-04-09 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2022-03-31 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1044 | 58% | 2022-03-31 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1018 | 53% | 2021-07-19 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1219 | 25% | 2021-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 966 | 66% | 2021-07-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2021-06-19 | | Lost |
| 977 | 999 | 47% | 2021-06-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2021-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1172 | 27% | 2021-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-04-07 | | Won |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2020-09-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | 2020-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2020-06-12 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-04-11 | | Won |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2019-12-16 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1134 | 39% | 2019-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1174 | 959 | 78% | 2019-11-23 | | Tied |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2019-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2019-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2019-10-10 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1081 vs 1026.9 has a 57.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).