The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (29 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1194 | 1119 | 61% | 2026-06-06 | | Won |
| 1011 | 837 | 73% | 2025-05-08 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-09-22 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-05-09 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-04-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 979 | 53% | 2023-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2022-06-10 | | Won |
| 1182 | 1039 | 69% | 2022-04-09 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2022-03-31 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2022-03-31 | | Lost |
| 921 | 1000 | 39% | 2021-09-25 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1018 | 46% | 2021-07-19 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1219 | 25% | 2021-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 981 | 64% | 2021-07-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2021-06-19 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1013 | 41% | 2021-06-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2021-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1172 | 27% | 2021-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-04-07 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2020-09-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | 2020-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 953 | 84% | 2020-06-12 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-04-11 | | Won |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2019-12-16 | | Won |
| 1077 | 1185 | 35% | 2019-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1131 | 1073 | 58% | 2019-11-23 | | Tied |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2019-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2019-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2019-10-10 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1068.7 vs 1033.7 has a 55.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).