The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (27 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1001 | 860 | 69% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1000 | 59% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 865 | 904 | 44% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1420 | 14% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1027 | 75% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1118 | 980 | 69% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1072 | 57% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 902 | 862 | 56% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1041 | 996 | 56% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 1253 | 20% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1026 | 60% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 980 | 982 | 50% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 982 | 1026 | 44% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 980 | 1118 | 31% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1173 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1099 | 45% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 970 | 1068 | 36% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1283 | 954 | 87% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 1081 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1229 | 980 | 81% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1097 | 1173 | 39% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1084 | 31% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1140 | 1176 | 45% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1048 | 60% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1065 | 974 | 63% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1068.2 vs 1060.6 has a 51.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).