Fuller's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (27 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 32
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 998 | 1032 | 45% | 2025-12-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 939 | 58% | 2025-05-22 | Won |
| 1164 | 1146 | 53% | 2024-11-30 | Lost |
| 915 | 1026 | 35% | 2024-05-12 | Lost |
| 977 | 1263 | 16% | 2024-04-27 | Lost |
| 1043 | 987 | 58% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1008 | 876 | 68% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1031 | 49% | 2022-03-29 | Lost |
| 920 | 1063 | 31% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1031 | 49% | 2021-10-26 | Won |
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2021-10-25 | Won |
| 1092 | 1228 | 31% | 2021-04-01 | Won |
| 1128 | 924 | 76% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 967 | 1051 | 38% | 2020-11-25 | Won |
| 904 | 1234 | 13% | 2020-10-15 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1005 | 66% | 2020-07-17 | Won |
| 1054 | 1037 | 52% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1131 | 1133 | 50% | 2020-03-01 | Won |
| 1013 | 1066 | 42% | 2020-02-16 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1077 | 40% | 2020-02-09 | Lost |
| 984 | 1043 | 42% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1094 | 54% | 2020-01-16 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1208 | 52% | 2020-01-01 | Won |
| 1172 | 1133 | 56% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1121 | 53% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 976 | 1218 | 20% | 2019-10-09 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1040 vs 1071 has a 45.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).