Fuller's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (27 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 32
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1029 | 1032 | 50% | 2025-12-09 | Lost |
| 977 | 939 | 55% | 2025-05-22 | Won |
| 1162 | 1144 | 53% | 2024-11-30 | Lost |
| 915 | 1025 | 35% | 2024-05-12 | Lost |
| 977 | 1263 | 16% | 2024-04-27 | Lost |
| 1073 | 987 | 62% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1008 | 891 | 66% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1070 | 43% | 2022-03-29 | Lost |
| 916 | 1090 | 27% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1070 | 43% | 2021-10-26 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2021-10-25 | Won |
| 1092 | 1228 | 31% | 2021-04-01 | Won |
| 1129 | 924 | 76% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1029 | 53% | 2020-11-25 | Won |
| 904 | 1219 | 14% | 2020-10-15 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1005 | 66% | 2020-07-17 | Won |
| 1054 | 1037 | 52% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2020-03-01 | Won |
| 1013 | 1066 | 42% | 2020-02-16 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1088 | 51% | 2020-02-09 | Lost |
| 984 | 1073 | 37% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1152 | 46% | 2020-01-16 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1165 | 59% | 2020-01-01 | Won |
| 1175 | 983 | 75% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1120 | 53% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 1216 | 20% | 2019-10-09 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1047.5 vs 1064.9 has a 47.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).