The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (11 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 960 | 1048 | 38% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1263 | 1290 | 46% | 2023-11-26 | Lost |
| 1121 | 969 | 71% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1007 | 1220 | 23% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 890 | 987 | 36% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1085 | 51% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1076 | 1120 | 44% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1003 | 51% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1228 | 1152 | 61% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1174 | 1234 | 41% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1087.4 vs 1097.5 has a 48.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).