A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (23 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 28
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1077 | 1005 | 60% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1023 | 45% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 1015 | 959 | 58% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1056 | 40% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 884 | 1155 | 17% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1121 | 918 | 76% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1003 | 769 | 79% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 884 | 1102 | 22% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1228 | 1263 | 45% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1172 | 891 | 83% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1347 | 11% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1059 | 884 | 73% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1159 | 41% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1037 | 973 | 59% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1003 | 998 | 51% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1220 | 48% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 947 | 1121 | 27% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1220 | 933 | 84% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1234 | 41% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 974 | 50% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1003 | 66% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1066.5 vs 1044.9 has a 53.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).