A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (18 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 20
Defender wins (German): 27
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 919 | 76% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 927 | 925 | 50% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1069 | 807 | 82% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 927 | 1090 | 28% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1141 | 893 | 81% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 977 | 1269 | 16% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1107 | 927 | 74% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1119 | 39% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 946 | 1034 | 38% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1069 | 994 | 61% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1276 | 31% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 952 | 1120 | 28% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1255 | 1010 | 80% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1033 | 57% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1310 | 21% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1084 | 35% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1069 | 56% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1058.9 vs 1049.6 has a 51.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).