A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59 (24 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1029 | 1136 | 35% | 2026-06-19 | Won |
| 1088 | 1008 | 61% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 951 | 1023 | 40% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 998 | 952 | 57% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1055 | 45% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 965 | 1126 | 28% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1126 | 918 | 77% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1094 | 759 | 87% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 965 | 1102 | 31% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1228 | 1263 | 45% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1175 | 891 | 84% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1347 | 11% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1059 | 965 | 63% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1109 | 42% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1037 | 973 | 59% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1094 | 1029 | 59% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1227 | 41% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 947 | 1126 | 26% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1182 | 926 | 81% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1057 | 53% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1084 | 35% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1094 | 54% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1074.2 vs 1058 has a 52.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).