A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (23 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 28
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 991 | 64% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 964 | 1023 | 42% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 984 | 959 | 54% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 988 | 1056 | 40% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 885 | 1108 | 22% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1108 | 918 | 75% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1065 | 763 | 85% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 885 | 1102 | 22% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1228 | 1263 | 45% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1223 | 892 | 87% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1347 | 11% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1059 | 885 | 73% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1127 | 46% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1037 | 973 | 59% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1065 | 999 | 59% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1238 | 46% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 947 | 1108 | 28% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1225 | 933 | 84% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1077 | 50% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1231 | 43% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 968 | 51% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1065 | 58% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1072.4 vs 1044.7 has a 53.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).