20 Years Later
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (18 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 8
Defender wins (German): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2025-03-22 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2024-09-09 | | Won |
| 1065 | 1131 | 41% | 2024-05-24 | | Won |
| 1059 | 750 | 86% | 2023-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1177 | 1066 | 65% | 2023-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2022-01-26 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1310 | 19% | 2021-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2021-01-29 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1182 | 25% | 2020-04-23 | | Lost |
| 1182 | 989 | 75% | 2020-04-23 | | Lost |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2020-03-31 | | Won |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-01-22 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2020-01-14 | | Tied |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2020-01-14 | | Tied |
| 989 | 1215 | 21% | 2019-11-27 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-10-19 | | Lost |
| 750 | 1059 | 14% | 2019-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1215 | 22% | 2019-05-15 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1026.2 vs 1107 has a 38.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).