20 Years Later
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (18 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 16
Defender wins (German): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2025-03-22 | | Lost |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-09-09 | | Won |
| 984 | 1149 | 28% | 2024-05-24 | | Won |
| 1056 | 755 | 85% | 2023-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1182 | 1066 | 66% | 2023-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2022-01-26 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1317 | 20% | 2021-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2021-01-29 | | Lost |
| 998 | 1198 | 24% | 2020-04-23 | | Lost |
| 1198 | 998 | 76% | 2020-04-23 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2020-03-31 | | Won |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-01-22 | | Won |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2020-01-14 | | Tied |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2020-01-14 | | Tied |
| 989 | 1234 | 20% | 2019-11-27 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-10-19 | | Lost |
| 755 | 1056 | 15% | 2019-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1234 | 21% | 2019-05-15 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1021.9 vs 1110.6 has a 37.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).