As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (30 on the archive and 71 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 55
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2026-07-31 | | Won |
| 1258 | 989 | 82% | 2026-06-17 | | Lost |
| 999 | 841 | 71% | 2026-06-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2025-10-02 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2025-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2025-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2024-05-17 | | Won |
| 998 | 1198 | 24% | 2024-05-09 | | Lost |
| 987 | 856 | 68% | 2022-04-02 | | Won |
| 1027 | 996 | 54% | 2021-07-10 | | Won |
| 1037 | 976 | 59% | 2021-03-03 | | Won |
| 1110 | 997 | 66% | 2020-07-27 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2020-07-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2020-06-18 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1275 | 31% | 2020-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-02-27 | | Won |
| 862 | 1147 | 16% | 2019-09-05 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2019-08-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2019-07-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2019-07-28 | | Won |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-07-27 | | Tied |
| 1343 | 1100 | 80% | 2019-06-20 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2019-04-18 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2019-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2019-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1174 | 959 | 78% | 2019-02-23 | | Won |
| 1220 | 1133 | 62% | 2019-01-18 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 1133 | 62% | 2019-01-18 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1054.5 vs 1030.8 has a 53.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).