Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (13 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1127 | 946 | 74% | 2026-07-26 | Won |
| 1217 | 997 | 78% | 2025-10-23 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1051 | 63% | 2024-04-11 | Tied |
| 1041 | 1048 | 49% | 2023-08-25 | Lost |
| 977 | 1079 | 36% | 2022-10-27 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2022-03-01 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1077 | 58% | 2021-05-15 | Lost |
| 931 | 951 | 47% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1155 | 51% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1175 | 1051 | 67% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1226 | 49% | 2019-06-28 | Lost |
| 1051 | 969 | 62% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2019-02-13 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1104.1 vs 1054.1 has a 57.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).