Heart of Darkness
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30 (14 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (South African): 13
Defender wins (Italian): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2026-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2025-08-20 | | Won |
| 1015 | 967 | 57% | 2024-10-14 | | Won |
| 1107 | 1055 | 57% | 2022-07-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1216 | 22% | 2020-06-19 | | Lost |
| 1010 | 1077 | 40% | 2020-06-01 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2019-08-24 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1219 | 19% | 2019-05-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2019-03-20 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1024 | 78% | 2019-03-12 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-02-08 | | Lost |
| 907 | 1134 | 21% | 2019-01-20 | | Won |
| 1010 | 981 | 54% | 2019-01-18 | | Won |
| 1241 | 1021 | 78% | 2018-12-18 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1048 vs 1048.4 has a 49.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).