Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 147 (50 on the archive and 97 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 75
Defender wins (American): 71
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1211 | 981 | 79% | 2025-10-28 | Won |
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2025-10-01 | Lost |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2025-07-09 | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2025-01-25 | Lost |
| 1126 | 984 | 69% | 2025-01-06 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1031 | 48% | 2024-02-06 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2023-08-30 | Won |
| 985 | 951 | 55% | 2023-08-13 | Won |
| 992 | 995 | 50% | 2022-09-24 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1099 | 47% | 2022-08-03 | Won |
| 1038 | 1020 | 53% | 2022-08-02 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1132 | 49% | 2022-06-12 | Won |
| 941 | 1219 | 17% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1017 | 76% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 1080 | 913 | 72% | 2021-12-11 | Won |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2021-10-10 | Won |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2021-08-28 | Lost |
| 944 | 932 | 52% | 2021-07-04 | Won |
| 976 | 1034 | 42% | 2021-06-09 | Won |
| 1028 | 999 | 54% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 1124 | 1006 | 66% | 2021-03-21 | Won |
| 924 | 951 | 46% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1076 | 44% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 989 | 1102 | 34% | 2021-01-15 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 1022 | 1054 | 45% | 2020-09-26 | Won |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | Won |
| 952 | 1103 | 30% | 2019-07-27 | Lost |
| 786 | 1263 | 6% | 2019-07-26 | Lost |
| 951 | 1129 | 26% | 2019-07-18 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1035 | 58% | 2019-06-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | Lost |
| 965 | 1102 | 31% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1150 | 41% | 2019-03-24 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1233 | 48% | 2019-02-08 | Won |
| 983 | 878 | 65% | 2019-01-29 | Won |
| 1142 | 1094 | 57% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2019-01-03 | Lost |
| 1094 | 876 | 78% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1020 | 1058 | 45% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1175 | 983 | 75% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1094 | 1138 | 44% | 2018-11-05 | Lost |
| 850 | 1123 | 17% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1097 | 81% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1337 | 1263 | 60% | 2018-10-17 | Won |
| 1008 | 1056 | 43% | 2018-10-05 | Lost |
| 959 | 1084 | 33% | 2018-09-21 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1060 | 52% | 2018-08-12 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1053.5 vs 1052.3 has a 50.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).