First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (46 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 69
Defender wins (German): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-10-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2025-06-20 | | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2025-01-16 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1127 | 28% | 2024-10-11 | | Lost |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2023-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1038 | 49% | 2022-06-22 | | Won |
| 1435 | 1018 | 92% | 2022-06-10 | | Won |
| 967 | 1000 | 45% | 2022-05-25 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1132 | 30% | 2022-05-07 | | Won |
| 941 | 1098 | 29% | 2021-08-25 | | Won |
| 1066 | 905 | 72% | 2021-05-01 | | Won |
| 1028 | 958 | 60% | 2021-02-13 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1164 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | | Lost |
| 1149 | 1055 | 63% | 2020-10-30 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1152 | 40% | 2020-10-28 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1102 | 36% | 2020-08-18 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-04-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2020-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2019-10-10 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-10-10 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1145 | 50% | 2019-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1097 | 1000 | 64% | 2019-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2019-01-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2019-01-18 | | Lost |
| 985 | 881 | 65% | 2019-01-12 | | Won |
| 1143 | 1056 | 62% | 2019-01-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-12-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2018-12-27 | | Lost |
| 876 | 1090 | 23% | 2018-12-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2018-12-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-12-08 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2018-12-02 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2018-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2018-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2018-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1214 | 1000 | 77% | 2018-11-10 | | Won |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2018-10-21 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 850 | 84% | 2018-10-20 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2018-10-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-10-12 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2018-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2018-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2018-09-10 | | Won |
| 755 | 1008 | 19% | 2018-09-08 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1006 | 48% | 2018-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1025.6 vs 1052.8 has a 46.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).