Black Day in Hatten
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 159 (59 on the archive and 100 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 77
Defender wins (German): 82
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2026-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2026-05-24 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2026-05-12 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-09-27 | | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2024-11-18 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1123 | 31% | 2024-06-09 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2024-02-28 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1127 | 28% | 2024-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2023-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2023-06-10 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2023-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2023-01-23 | | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2023-01-20 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-11-01 | | Won |
| 946 | 1227 | 17% | 2022-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2022-08-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2022-06-10 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 969 | 72% | 2022-06-10 | | Won |
| 1164 | 944 | 78% | 2022-03-23 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1038 | 49% | 2021-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2021-12-04 | | Won |
| 951 | 1088 | 31% | 2021-10-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2021-10-13 | | Won |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2021-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-02-01 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1164 | 34% | 2020-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1102 | 59% | 2020-09-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2020-06-07 | | Won |
| 924 | 1000 | 39% | 2020-05-31 | | Won |
| 1218 | 938 | 83% | 2020-04-13 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2019-11-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2019-10-22 | | Won |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-10-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2019-10-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2019-09-16 | | Won |
| 1216 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-04-24 | | Won |
| 808 | 1159 | 12% | 2019-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2018-12-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2018-12-23 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1252 | 20% | 2018-12-08 | | Won |
| 985 | 986 | 50% | 2018-12-08 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2018-11-24 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1103 | 31% | 2018-11-06 | | Won |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2018-11-06 | | Won |
| 907 | 1120 | 23% | 2018-11-03 | | Lost |
| 876 | 1090 | 23% | 2018-10-28 | | Won |
| 876 | 1090 | 23% | 2018-10-28 | | Won |
| 876 | 1090 | 23% | 2018-10-28 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1085 | 43% | 2018-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1010 | 65% | 2018-10-20 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2018-10-04 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1133 | 16% | 2018-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 856 | 70% | 2018-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2018-09-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2018-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1056 | 62% | 2018-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2018-08-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-08-09 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1086 | 43% | | | Lost |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1027.9 vs 1049 has a 46.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).