The Chivres Shivaree
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 13 (8 on the archive and 5 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 3
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 1025 | 990 | 55% | 2024-06-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 928 | 78% | 2018-06-27 | Lost |
| 1245 | 1226 | 53% | 2018-06-24 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1025 | 65% | 2018-06-24 | Won |
| 956 | 1042 | 38% | 2018-06-24 | Lost |
| 995 | 1083 | 38% | 2018-05-03 | Lost |
| 1083 | 995 | 62% | 2018-05-01 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1078.4 vs 1041.3 has a 55.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).