A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (11 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 19
Defender wins (German): 18
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 985 | 54% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1013 | 920 | 63% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1038 | 61% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1014 | 56% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1209 | 40% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1031 | 1125 | 37% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1140 | 967 | 73% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 967 | 1140 | 27% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1065 | 45% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1086.5 vs 1050.8 has a 55.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).