Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 140 (35 on the archive and 105 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 71
Defender wins (German): 68
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 947 | 960 | 48% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 1211 | 988 | 78% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 928 | 1037 | 35% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1032 | 37% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1234 | 1175 | 58% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1142 | 948 | 75% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 865 | 890 | 46% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1306 | 1068 | 80% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 967 | 1009 | 44% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 933 | 62% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1038 | 48% | 2021-05-22 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1189 | 36% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1178 | 27% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1220 | 31% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 974 | 1009 | 45% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1018 | 998 | 53% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1080 | 43% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1141 | 1089 | 57% | 2018-11-04 | Won |
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1120 | 968 | 71% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1234 | 974 | 82% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1043 | 947 | 63% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1208 | 1220 | 48% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1063 | 860 | 76% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 919 | 1160 | 20% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1039 | 998 | 56% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 974 | 1077 | 36% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 953 | 1263 | 14% | 2017-10-21 | Lost |
| 951 | 1120 | 27% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1056 | 996 | 59% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 988 | 1025 | 45% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1048 vs 1039.2 has a 51.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).