Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (35 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 66
Defender wins (German): 72
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 941 | 960 | 47% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 900 | 958 | 42% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 932 | 1007 | 39% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1047 | 35% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1204 | 1033 | 73% | 2023-03-26 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1064 | 82% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1138 | 948 | 75% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 866 | 917 | 43% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1292 | 1014 | 83% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1093 | 940 | 71% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1020 | 932 | 62% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1204 | 34% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1165 | 28% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1282 | 24% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1202 | 33% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1052 | 940 | 66% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1018 | 1047 | 46% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1080 | 47% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1151 | 1066 | 62% | 2018-11-04 | Won |
| 1123 | 1110 | 52% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1122 | 968 | 71% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1333 | 985 | 88% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 947 | 60% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1151 | 713 | 93% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1137 | 1216 | 39% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1194 | 861 | 87% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1024 | 1048 | 47% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 969 | 62% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1066 | 48% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 951 | 1122 | 27% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 992 | 59% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 958 | 1031 | 40% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1033 | 73% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1069.3 vs 1020.7 has a 56.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).