Trial Run
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (18 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 23
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 960 | 1003 | 44% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 902 | 1068 | 28% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 894 | 922 | 46% | 2021-05-29 | Won |
| 989 | 889 | 64% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 1053 | 1069 | 48% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 981 | 914 | 60% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 981 | 914 | 60% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1061 | 988 | 60% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 988 | 1000 | 48% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1179 | 1069 | 65% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1106 | 959 | 70% | 2017-09-02 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-08-04 | Won |
| 908 | 923 | 48% | 2017-07-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
| 1064 | 1145 | 39% | 2017-05-07 | Lost |
| 908 | 938 | 46% | 2017-04-02 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2017-02-16 | Won |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1001.4 vs 991.7 has a 51.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).