Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1040 | 48% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1138 | 929 | 77% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1085 | 59% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 986 | 1095 | 35% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 904 | 45% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1103 | 1098 | 51% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 965 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1020 | 49% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 903 | 67% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1178 | 986 | 75% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1051.3 vs 1011.8 has a 55.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).