Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 959 | 959 | 50% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1116 | 917 | 76% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1031 | 67% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 867 | 882 | 48% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1151 | 1092 | 58% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 945 | 966 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 1015 | 944 | 60% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1053 | 927 | 67% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1045.5 vs 998.2 has a 56.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).