Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (14 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 19
Defender wins (British): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1027 | 1070 | 44% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1083 | 902 | 74% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1021 | 68% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 952 | 1107 | 29% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 865 | 872 | 49% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1102 | 1099 | 50% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 955 | 965 | 49% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 1019 | 996 | 53% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1263 | 1040 | 78% | 2017-10-20 | Won |
| 1129 | 945 | 74% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 984 | 1342 | 11% | 2017-05-13 | Lost |
| 1027 | 893 | 68% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1230 | 945 | 84% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1062.4 vs 1020.4 has a 56.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).