A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 231 (73 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 133
Defender wins (German): 98
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 991 | 988 | 50% | 2025-11-10 | Won |
| 993 | 1160 | 28% | 2025-09-15 | Won |
| 1007 | 1007 | 50% | 2025-08-09 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1021 | 50% | 2025-08-07 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1196 | 39% | 2025-07-08 | Lost |
| 984 | 952 | 55% | 2025-04-15 | Lost |
| 950 | 919 | 54% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 950 | 919 | 54% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1001 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-08-15 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 966 | 1019 | 42% | 2022-06-14 | Won |
| 962 | 1051 | 37% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1056 | 66% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 992 | 986 | 51% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
| 1012 | 986 | 54% | 2021-03-07 | Won |
| 1084 | 1112 | 46% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 904 | 45% | 2021-01-12 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1123 | 45% | 2020-11-03 | Lost |
| 982 | 931 | 57% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1086 | 1163 | 39% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1089 | 1089 | 50% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1203 | 31% | 2020-04-12 | Won |
| 986 | 1113 | 32% | 2020-02-12 | Lost |
| 996 | 989 | 51% | 2020-02-11 | Won |
| 1138 | 1342 | 24% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 1016 | 989 | 54% | 2019-10-12 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1086 | 45% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 950 | 967 | 48% | 2019-07-20 | Won |
| 994 | 1099 | 35% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1037 | 905 | 68% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1216 | 35% | 2018-12-14 | Won |
| 1142 | 1101 | 56% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 1177 | 970 | 77% | 2018-05-27 | Lost |
| 957 | 942 | 52% | 2018-05-26 | Won |
| 973 | 973 | 50% | 2018-05-24 | Won |
| 1138 | 731 | 91% | 2018-05-22 | Won |
| 962 | 1099 | 31% | 2018-03-25 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1216 | 35% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1152 | 950 | 76% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
| 1001 | 1003 | 50% | 2017-11-18 | Lost |
| 1015 | 982 | 55% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 1037 | 1082 | 44% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 982 | 1032 | 43% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1084 | 1216 | 32% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 992 | 1071 | 39% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1249 | 1281 | 45% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1274 | 917 | 89% | 2017-09-01 | Won |
| 1029 | 1153 | 33% | 2017-08-11 | Won |
| 986 | 879 | 65% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1140 | 1143 | 50% | 2017-06-25 | Lost |
| 906 | 903 | 50% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 932 | 1173 | 20% | 2017-05-22 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1050 | 57% | 2017-04-24 | Lost |
| 1050 | 950 | 64% | 2017-04-18 | Won |
| 1281 | 873 | 91% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1142 | 1226 | 38% | 2017-04-08 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1029 | 58% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1138 | 1150 | 48% | 2017-03-17 | Lost |
| 1419 | 1011 | 91% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
| 1058 | 1216 | 29% | 2017-03-10 | Won |
| 1074 | 1085 | 48% | 2017-03-05 | Won |
| 1010 | 1020 | 49% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1010 | 1020 | 49% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 958 | 1050 | 37% | 2017-02-20 | Lost |
| 950 | 1029 | 39% | 2017-02-16 | Lost |
| 1053 | 903 | 70% | 2017-01-14 | Won |
| 1022 | 1122 | 36% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1122 | 40% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1083 | 40% | Won |
Attacking (43 wins) average ELOs: 1048.4 vs 1051.8 has a 49.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).