Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1135 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1347 | 15% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 964 | 62% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1243 | 24% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1245 | 1220 | 54% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1064 | 45% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 1076 | 39% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 933 | 78% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1174 | 1060 | 66% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1146 | 32% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1146 | 37% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1069 | 994 | 61% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 1143 | 39% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 999 | 999 | 50% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1219 | 1313 | 37% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1187 | 1057 | 68% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1080.6 vs 1095.3 has a 47.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).