Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1132 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1348 | 14% | 2024-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2024-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1069 | 1218 | 30% | 2024-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 1284 | 34% | 2024-03-12 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-11-17 | | Lost |
| 995 | 1152 | 29% | 2022-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2017-12-01 | | Won |
| 1208 | 1022 | 74% | 2017-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1147 | 32% | 2017-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1147 | 37% | 2017-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1001 | 1058 | 42% | 2017-08-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2017-03-09 | | Lost |
| 954 | 999 | 44% | 2017-03-02 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1329 | 35% | 2016-11-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2016-10-08 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1042.9 vs 1104.3 has a 41.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).