Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1136 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 983 | 1347 | 11% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1053 | 49% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1191 | 31% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1206 | 52% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1064 | 44% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 1162 | 28% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 988 | 72% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1174 | 1061 | 66% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1134 | 34% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1134 | 39% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1146 | 933 | 77% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 982 | 1131 | 30% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 996 | 1026 | 46% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1234 | 1313 | 39% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1188 | 1043 | 70% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1075.4 vs 1100.1 has a 46.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).