Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1135 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1342 | 14% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1229 | 1009 | 78% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1128 | 43% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1261 | 40% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1064 | 51% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 988 | 1185 | 24% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 944 | 77% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1206 | 1039 | 72% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1078 | 42% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1078 | 47% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1009 | 57% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 856 | 1113 | 19% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1011 | 51% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1340 | 1265 | 61% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1188 | 1043 | 70% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1088.2 vs 1087.3 has a 50.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).