The Niscemi-Biscari Highway
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 77 (33 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 38
Defender wins (American): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1050 | 51% | 2025-05-09 | Won |
| 1122 | 1122 | 50% | 2025-03-14 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1170 | 35% | 2025-01-07 | Lost |
| 934 | 864 | 60% | 2025-01-03 | Won |
| 847 | 935 | 38% | 2024-02-29 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1055 | 51% | 2024-01-02 | Won |
| 874 | 1001 | 32% | 2023-10-10 | Lost |
| 906 | 939 | 45% | 2023-08-06 | Won |
| 959 | 1055 | 37% | 2023-02-18 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1035 | 53% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1425 | 1431 | 49% | 2022-11-18 | Lost |
| 1016 | 956 | 59% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1049 | 50% | 2022-03-16 | Lost |
| 1431 | 925 | 95% | 2022-02-01 | Won |
| 1014 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-01-31 | Lost |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2022-01-29 | Lost |
| 878 | 1061 | 26% | 2022-01-23 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1266 | 19% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1016 | 81% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1008 | 1080 | 40% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 888 | 998 | 35% | 2021-06-19 | Won |
| 973 | 1017 | 44% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 906 | 893 | 52% | 2020-05-05 | Won |
| 978 | 1009 | 46% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 906 | 1043 | 31% | 2020-01-30 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1014 | 71% | 2019-03-05 | Won |
| 1199 | 1035 | 72% | 2018-09-20 | Won |
| 1264 | 1095 | 73% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1080 | 908 | 73% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1223 | 22% | 2017-05-18 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1058 | 54% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
| 859 | 982 | 33% | 2016-10-05 | Won |
| 880 | 982 | 36% | 2016-10-03 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1034.8 vs 1035.6 has a 49.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).