Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 445 (23 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 223
Defender wins (American): 222
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1042 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 994 | 1039 | 44% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1142 | 1178 | 45% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 951 | 939 | 52% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 1039 | 987 | 57% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 951 | 1028 | 39% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 987 | 946 | 56% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 1220 | 946 | 83% | 2020-12-19 | Won |
| 985 | 956 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1139 | 908 | 79% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 989 | 1032 | 44% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 864 | 927 | 41% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 951 | 951 | 50% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 1013 | 1263 | 19% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1117 | 62% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1117 | 1203 | 38% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 968 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1219 | 889 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1035 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1050 vs 1028 has a 53.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).