Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 446 (24 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 223
Defender wins (American): 222
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 996 | 996 | 50% | 2026-03-21 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1042 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 993 | 1166 | 27% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1208 | 1178 | 54% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 988 | 937 | 57% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 999 | 987 | 52% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 988 | 1003 | 48% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 987 | 933 | 58% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 1220 | 933 | 84% | 2020-12-19 | Won |
| 986 | 970 | 52% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 967 | 940 | 54% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 989 | 1049 | 41% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 863 | 884 | 47% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 973 | 1220 | 19% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1117 | 43% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1117 | 1070 | 57% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 967 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1218 | 893 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1035 | 61% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1040.8 vs 1026.3 has a 52.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).