Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64 (21 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 882 | 1050 | 28% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1076 | 50% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1086 | 927 | 71% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1109 | 1310 | 24% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 768 | 970 | 24% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1011 | 68% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1189 | 748 | 93% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 991 | 1037 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 882 | 998 | 34% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1080 | 58% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 748 | 1132 | 10% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1015 | 1084 | 40% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1125 | 38% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1141 | 1141 | 50% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1053 | 1141 | 38% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 992 | 1310 | 14% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1219 | 25% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1079 | 1058 | 53% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1003 | 61% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1254 | 1080 | 73% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1264 | 1125 | 69% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1045.3 vs 1077.4 has a 45.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).