A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (15 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 913 | 811 | 64% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1081 | 39% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1071 | 1125 | 42% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1000 | 851 | 70% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1156 | 39% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 965 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 965 | 974 | 49% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 906 | 1216 | 14% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1223 | 927 | 85% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 981 | 1223 | 20% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1162 | 45% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1022.3 vs 1032.8 has a 48.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).