A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (17 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 1001 | 53% | 2025-12-28 | Lost |
| 967 | 1063 | 37% | 2025-11-09 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1051 | 70% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 978 | 970 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1081 | 952 | 68% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1018 | 64% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1114 | 1198 | 38% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1122 | 981 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 919 | 1041 | 33% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 984 | 989 | 49% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 995 | 1116 | 33% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1107 | 63% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1174 | 25% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1256 | 938 | 86% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 873 | 1256 | 10% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1032 | 50% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1058.4 vs 1067.1 has a 48.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).