Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 111 (43 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (Polish): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 956 | 906 | 57% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1073 | 48% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 998 | 1086 | 38% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1039 | 897 | 69% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 920 | 970 | 43% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 975 | 906 | 60% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1266 | 1016 | 81% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 1009 | 1064 | 42% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1170 | 978 | 75% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1014 | 951 | 59% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1142 | 889 | 81% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1055 | 44% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 1016 | 46% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 906 | 1003 | 36% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 912 | 1141 | 21% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1029 | 58% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1100 | 59% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1064 | 1241 | 27% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 992 | 1219 | 21% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 862 | 1007 | 30% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 980 | 919 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1018 | 52% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1032 | 48% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1219 | 1029 | 75% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1041 | 1120 | 39% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 926 | 906 | 53% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1001 | 906 | 63% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 918 | 1019 | 36% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1075 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1084 | 46% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 906 | 997 | 37% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 900 | 998 | 36% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1157 | 998 | 71% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 1310 | 988 | 86% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 933 | 1041 | 35% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1125 | 31% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 977 | 1132 | 29% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1170 | 977 | 75% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1266 | 13% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1037.1 vs 1036.7 has a 50.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).