Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (36 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (Polish): 55
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 975 | 931 | 56% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1255 | 996 | 82% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 1063 | 49% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1152 | 977 | 73% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 955 | 58% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 920 | 941 | 47% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1024 | 48% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 974 | 996 | 47% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 931 | 1003 | 40% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 911 | 1141 | 21% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1110 | 58% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1129 | 43% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 980 | 1214 | 21% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 863 | 927 | 41% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 981 | 931 | 57% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 938 | 1020 | 38% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 938 | 62% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1214 | 996 | 78% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1069 | 1120 | 43% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 1001 | 931 | 60% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 926 | 931 | 49% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 1001 | 38% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1074 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1065 | 49% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 931 | 997 | 41% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 900 | 1036 | 31% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1036 | 65% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 1310 | 988 | 86% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 933 | 1069 | 31% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1008 | 49% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1255 | 14% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1184 | 56% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1163 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1036.9 vs 1041 has a 49.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).