Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (45 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (Polish): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 1019 | 46% | 2025-12-02 | Won |
| 953 | 958 | 49% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1083 | 47% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1072 | 48% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1031 | 49% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 923 | 1021 | 36% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1104 | 1104 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 974 | 958 | 52% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1282 | 1024 | 82% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 980 | 1064 | 38% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1212 | 989 | 78% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1080 | 951 | 68% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1207 | 889 | 86% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1015 | 49% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 1024 | 45% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 958 | 883 | 61% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 914 | 1137 | 22% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1047 | 53% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1098 | 60% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1202 | 33% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1051 | 1204 | 29% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1217 | 22% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 864 | 879 | 48% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 980 | 919 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1020 | 48% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1009 | 52% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1217 | 1047 | 73% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1003 | 1120 | 34% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 926 | 958 | 45% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 958 | 56% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 1023 | 35% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1075 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 958 | 999 | 44% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 903 | 972 | 40% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1149 | 972 | 73% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1340 | 948 | 91% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 917 | 1003 | 38% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1089 | 36% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 945 | 1117 | 27% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1213 | 945 | 82% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1282 | 12% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1117 | 46% | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1034.6 vs 1040.2 has a 49.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).