Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 117 (48 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (Polish): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 943 | 70% | 2026-01-10 | | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-12-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2024-12-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2024-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1064 | 43% | 2024-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1095 | 960 | 69% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2024-04-22 | | Won |
| 973 | 981 | 49% | 2024-04-09 | | Won |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2023-11-19 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1215 | 989 | 79% | 2023-09-19 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 950 | 65% | 2023-03-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 841 | 71% | 2023-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2023-03-14 | | Lost |
| 987 | 974 | 52% | 2023-03-09 | | Won |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2023-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2023-02-10 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2023-01-30 | | Won |
| 947 | 1230 | 16% | 2022-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1046 | 1018 | 54% | 2022-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1149 | 30% | 2022-02-25 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2021-11-27 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1150 | 33% | 2020-10-08 | | Won |
| 994 | 1218 | 22% | 2020-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 921 | 61% | 2020-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 917 | 62% | 2020-05-01 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1000 | 49% | 2019-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2019-09-11 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1018 | 76% | 2019-05-12 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-02-09 | | Won |
| 943 | 981 | 45% | 2018-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2018-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2018-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 1080 | 55% | 2018-11-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2018-04-27 | | Won |
| 981 | 1001 | 47% | 2017-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2017-08-03 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 952 | 75% | 2017-07-02 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2016-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 943 | 83% | 2016-09-02 | | Won |
| 918 | 1059 | 31% | 2016-08-13 | | Lost |
| 988 | 1062 | 40% | 2016-08-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2016-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2016-04-13 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1289 | 12% | 2016-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1040.1 vs 1023.5 has a 52.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).