Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 178 (64 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 105
Defender wins (Polish): 73
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2026-02-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 993 | 51% | 2025-07-31 | | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-07-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2025-04-04 | | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2025-02-18 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-02-07 | | Won |
| 909 | 1077 | 28% | 2024-09-08 | | Lost |
| 966 | 973 | 49% | 2024-04-02 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-03-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2023-11-18 | D | Won |
| 1056 | 1013 | 56% | 2023-09-19 | | Won |
| 841 | 950 | 35% | 2023-03-14 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2023-03-08 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2023-02-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1269 | 18% | 2023-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1170 | 27% | 2022-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2022-06-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2022-06-06 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 944 | 62% | 2022-05-31 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2022-03-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2022-01-27 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-04-17 | | Won |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2021-02-16 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-10-28 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1178 | 43% | 2020-07-22 | | Won |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2020-05-29 | | Won |
| 989 | 969 | 53% | 2020-05-22 | | Won |
| 954 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-05-14 | | Lost |
| 953 | 1099 | 30% | 2020-03-14 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1182 | 34% | 2020-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1097 | 40% | 2019-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1048 | 966 | 62% | 2018-08-11 | | Won |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | | Won |
| 930 | 1000 | 40% | 2018-07-15 | | Won |
| 1055 | 975 | 61% | 2018-06-18 | | Won |
| 975 | 1097 | 33% | 2018-04-26 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2018-04-08 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2018-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1024 | 1038 | 48% | 2017-12-26 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1170 | 29% | 2017-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2017-04-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2017-04-16 | | Won |
| 1133 | 952 | 74% | 2017-04-13 | | Won |
| 1050 | 994 | 58% | 2017-02-10 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1041 | 45% | 2017-01-28 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2017-01-07 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2016-09-28 | | Lost |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2016-09-03 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2016-07-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2016-07-08 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1073 | 46% | 2016-06-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2016-06-12 | | Won |
| 876 | 1080 | 24% | 2016-06-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2016-06-12 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2016-05-11 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1266 | 13% | 2016-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2016-04-13 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1010 | 65% | 2016-03-06 | | Won |
| 1145 | 891 | 81% | 2016-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
| 1215 | 1086 | 68% | | | Won |
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (45 wins) average ELOs: 1018.3 vs 1032.9 has a 47.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).