The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (29 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 41
Defender wins (Polish): 41
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1159 | 1131 | 54% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1141 | 926 | 78% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 1146 | 1011 | 69% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 996 | 974 | 53% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 936 | 1066 | 32% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 955 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 917 | 48% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1041 | 1071 | 46% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 911 | 1006 | 37% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 927 | 1004 | 39% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1031 | 931 | 64% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 955 | 1008 | 42% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1169 | 33% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1255 | 36% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1009 | 1116 | 35% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1129 | 43% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 967 | 1129 | 28% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1031 | 56% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1140 | 1036 | 65% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1140 | 1036 | 65% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1140 | 1036 | 65% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1138 | 931 | 77% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 1008 | 61% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1069 | 45% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 996 | 1163 | 28% | | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1044.3 vs 1051.1 has a 49.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).