Red Churchills
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (20 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 29
Defender wins (Finnish): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1211 | 23% | 2026-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2025-11-08 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2025-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1112 | 1136 | 47% | 2025-07-08 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1112 | 40% | 2024-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 780 | 89% | 2024-08-14 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1041 | 51% | 2024-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2024-03-04 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2024-03-02 | | Lost |
| 991 | 991 | 50% | 2021-10-09 | | Won |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2021-04-18 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2021-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 979 | 53% | 2020-03-21 | | Won |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2018-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-09-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2016-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1088 | 46% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2016-07-02 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1141 | 39% | 2016-02-25 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1030.5 vs 1058.9 has a 45.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).