The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (12 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 35
Defender wins (German): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 932 | 973 | 44% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1266 | 748 | 95% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1128 | 1067 | 59% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1219 | 25% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 980 | 1080 | 36% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 910 | 1199 | 16% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1141 | 49% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1011 | 54% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1310 | 1062 | 81% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1041 | 1032 | 51% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1041 | 1032 | 51% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1074.6 vs 1042.8 has a 54.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).