Start Fall Gelb
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (20 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 56
Defender wins (Belgian): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1045 | 950 | 63% | 2025-11-01 | Lost |
| 966 | 844 | 67% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2024-11-08 | Won |
| 1030 | 1042 | 48% | 2024-11-07 | Won |
| 952 | 1114 | 28% | 2024-05-17 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1010 | 51% | 2022-10-17 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1015 | 49% | 2022-10-10 | Won |
| 780 | 1000 | 22% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 974 | 941 | 55% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 904 | 1061 | 29% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 998 | 1037 | 44% | 2019-08-10 | Won |
| 1216 | 1190 | 54% | 2016-11-24 | Won |
| 1216 | 1194 | 53% | 2016-11-23 | Won |
| 981 | 1126 | 30% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1138 | 1210 | 40% | 2016-02-28 | Won |
| 927 | 1018 | 37% | 2015-12-27 | Lost |
| 1113 | 986 | 68% | 2015-10-30 | Lost |
| 913 | 1085 | 27% | 2015-06-06 | Lost |
| 731 | 1138 | 9% | 2015-04-25 | Lost |
| 1274 | 943 | 87% | 2015-04-01 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1008 vs 1044 has a 44.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).