Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (27 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 41
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2026-06-07 | Won |
| 1140 | 1089 | 57% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2025-07-12 | Won |
| 998 | 780 | 78% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1206 | 1226 | 47% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1143 | 34% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1028 | 49% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1028 | 54% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1046 | 1138 | 37% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 996 | 1037 | 44% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1021 | 939 | 62% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1123 | 1120 | 50% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1123 | 1120 | 50% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 986 | 945 | 56% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 986 | 945 | 56% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1102 | 26% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1107 | 48% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1127 | 44% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1143 | 52% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1211 | 1215 | 49% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1271 | 42% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1057 | 52% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1023 | 75% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1075.8 vs 1067 has a 51.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).