Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (26 on the archive and 54 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1119 | 1088 | 54% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1092 | 40% | 2025-07-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 780 | 78% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1205 | 1189 | 52% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1131 | 42% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1007 | 60% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1028 | 54% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1007 | 1038 | 46% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1042 | 939 | 64% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1113 | 1120 | 49% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1113 | 1120 | 49% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 993 | 945 | 57% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 993 | 945 | 57% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 887 | 1102 | 22% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1108 | 48% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1173 | 39% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1131 | 38% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1252 | 1215 | 55% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1186 | 54% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1043 | 54% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1256 | 913 | 88% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1075.5 vs 1063.8 has a 51.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).