Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 132 (34 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 70
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1211 | 988 | 78% | 2026-09-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2026-08-30 | | Won |
| 915 | 1008 | 37% | 2025-12-13 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-07-04 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2024-03-19 | | Won |
| 1091 | 1149 | 42% | 2024-03-15 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1149 | 50% | 2024-03-15 | | Won |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 974 | 1289 | 14% | 2024-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 991 | 54% | 2023-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1135 | 1012 | 67% | 2022-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1030 | 47% | 2022-02-06 | | Won |
| 904 | 1133 | 21% | 2021-05-23 | | Won |
| 904 | 1030 | 33% | 2020-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-04-29 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1136 | 29% | 2019-12-16 | | Lost |
| 986 | 1011 | 46% | 2019-09-02 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1028 | 55% | 2019-07-20 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2019-06-08 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1147 | 27% | 2019-05-16 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2019-01-19 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1102 | 62% | 2018-01-27 | | Won |
| 995 | 1150 | 29% | 2017-11-12 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-07-06 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1076 | 41% | 2017-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2016-10-13 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1003 | 80% | 2016-08-10 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1049 | 62% | 2016-06-27 | | Won |
| 1229 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-06-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2016-06-01 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1083 | 58% | 2016-02-26 | | Won |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2016-01-20 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1006 | 87% | 2015-05-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1230 | 21% | 2015-03-13 | | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1069.9 vs 1054.4 has a 52.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).