Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (33 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 67
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 915 | 991 | 39% | 2025-12-13 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1033 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 940 | 918 | 53% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1172 | 1151 | 53% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1113 | 1151 | 45% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1225 | 987 | 80% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 987 | 1225 | 20% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1017 | 989 | 54% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1134 | 980 | 71% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 980 | 1030 | 43% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 885 | 1129 | 20% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 885 | 1030 | 30% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1035 | 945 | 63% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 991 | 1108 | 34% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 995 | 968 | 54% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1028 | 53% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1123 | 972 | 70% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1123 | 29% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 909 | 1037 | 32% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1127 | 1102 | 54% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 995 | 1113 | 34% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1108 | 1121 | 48% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 993 | 1065 | 40% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1070 | 52% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1129 | 1039 | 63% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1205 | 1119 | 62% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1231 | 31% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1053 | 62% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 753 | 90% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1342 | 1006 | 87% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1022 | 1208 | 26% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1230 | 945 | 84% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1067.7 vs 1049.2 has a 52.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).