The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 131 (30 on the archive and 101 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 66
Defender wins (Japanese): 65
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1096 | 1243 | 30% | 2025-11-10 | Lost |
| 1096 | 953 | 69% | 2025-11-06 | Won |
| 1065 | 1065 | 50% | 2025-10-26 | Won |
| 1263 | 1006 | 81% | 2025-01-11 | Won |
| 1058 | 975 | 62% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 950 | 923 | 54% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 976 | 986 | 49% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 976 | 986 | 49% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1158 | 986 | 73% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 980 | 1130 | 30% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1130 | 980 | 70% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1209 | 1041 | 72% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1081 | 47% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1174 | 30% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 897 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1263 | 996 | 82% | 2016-05-28 | Won |
| 1123 | 992 | 68% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 1024 | 1117 | 37% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 878 | 44% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1084 | 985 | 64% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1256 | 14% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1253 | 25% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1012 | 1026 | 48% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1192 | 1096 | 63% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1298 | 1009 | 84% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 941 | 1024 | 38% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1058 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1062.1 vs 1036.8 has a 53.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).