The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 121 (23 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 59
Defender wins (Japanese): 62
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1116 | 976 | 69% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1097 | 38% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 984 | 997 | 48% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 997 | 984 | 52% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1128 | 984 | 70% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1014 | 72% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1218 | 1031 | 75% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1065 | 49% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1141 | 33% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 897 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1003 | 64% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 841 | 927 | 38% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1255 | 14% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1310 | 20% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1069 | 1026 | 56% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1125 | 1120 | 51% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 927 | 1010 | 38% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 939 | 1084 | 30% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1056 | 55% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1044.6 vs 1052.5 has a 48.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).