The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 131 (30 on the archive and 101 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 66
Defender wins (Japanese): 65
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1097 | 1158 | 41% | 2025-11-10 | Lost |
| 1121 | 934 | 75% | 2025-11-06 | Won |
| 993 | 998 | 49% | 2025-10-26 | Won |
| 1263 | 1006 | 81% | 2025-01-11 | Won |
| 1070 | 1009 | 59% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 1024 | 922 | 64% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 1003 | 979 | 53% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1003 | 979 | 53% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 979 | 1003 | 47% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 979 | 1003 | 47% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1188 | 1003 | 74% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 960 | 1131 | 27% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1131 | 960 | 73% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1209 | 967 | 80% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1007 | 57% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1208 | 26% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 898 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1263 | 997 | 82% | 2016-05-28 | Won |
| 1120 | 992 | 68% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 974 | 1135 | 28% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 884 | 44% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1115 | 998 | 66% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 939 | 1220 | 17% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1234 | 27% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1003 | 1012 | 49% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1192 | 1121 | 60% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1299 | 984 | 86% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 943 | 974 | 46% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1060 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1064.5 vs 1026.8 has a 55.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).