The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (16 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 21
Defender wins (German): 25
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2026-10-04 | | Won |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2026-06-13 | | Won |
| 960 | 1177 | 22% | 2026-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1211 | 23% | 2026-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2024-11-22 | D | Won |
| 1115 | 1045 | 60% | 2024-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2023-10-05 | | Won |
| 1057 | 991 | 59% | 2021-02-17 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2020-01-29 | | Lost |
| 904 | 1000 | 37% | 2016-04-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2015-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2014-04-12 | | Won |
| 1039 | 998 | 56% | 2014-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2014-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2014-02-12 | | Won |
| 1172 | 1101 | 60% | 2013-10-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1023.6 vs 1069.1 has a 43.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).