Totsugeki!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 12
Defender wins (Chinese): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 865 | 855 | 51% | 2026-01-29 | Won |
| 956 | 1038 | 38% | 2026-01-03 | Lost |
| 940 | 940 | 50% | 2025-11-03 | Lost |
| 1306 | 999 | 85% | 2025-10-26 | Lost |
| 999 | 1306 | 15% | 2025-10-26 | Lost |
| 1223 | 993 | 79% | 2025-10-09 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1083 | 53% | 2023-04-28 | Lost |
| 955 | 1023 | 40% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 969 | 994 | 46% | 2022-05-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-22 | Lost |
| 964 | 1007 | 44% | 2020-08-27 | Lost |
| 964 | 1007 | 44% | 2020-08-26 | Lost |
| 954 | 970 | 48% | 2020-08-22 | Lost |
| 949 | 1131 | 26% | 2020-08-18 | Won |
| 1078 | 1097 | 47% | 2020-08-16 | Lost |
| 952 | 1122 | 27% | 2020-08-04 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1225 | 34% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 1135 | 1178 | 44% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 879 | 956 | 39% | 2019-07-16 | Tied |
| 957 | 1225 | 18% | 2019-03-15 | Won |
| 1216 | 1149 | 60% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2017-11-17 | Won |
| 956 | 879 | 61% | 2017-02-13 | Won |
| 1020 | 987 | 55% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 1016 | 908 | 65% | 2016-04-10 | Lost |
| 929 | 1212 | 16% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 850 | 873 | 47% | 2015-02-03 | Lost |
| 999 | 972 | 54% | 2014-06-29 | Won |
| 1138 | 1164 | 46% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1129 | 1039 | 63% | 2013-12-01 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1022 vs 1049 has a 46.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).