Semper Paratus
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (21 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 36
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 1077 | 28% | 2025-11-02 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2025-02-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2024-12-29 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2024-10-20 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 961 | 57% | 2022-11-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2022-07-16 | | Won |
| 1019 | 974 | 56% | 2022-07-14 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2021-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1065 | 1131 | 41% | 2020-05-01 | | Won |
| 981 | 924 | 58% | 2020-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2017-01-04 | | Won |
| 1289 | 1015 | 83% | 2016-01-18 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2013-11-22 | | Won |
| 994 | 1000 | 49% | 2013-11-16 | | Lost |
| 972 | 1108 | 31% | 2013-08-09 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1049 | 62% | 2013-07-01 | | Won |
| 1049 | 1133 | 38% | 2013-07-01 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1289 | 18% | 2013-03-22 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2013-03-07 | | Won |
| 904 | 1000 | 37% | 2013-02-04 | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1026.4 has a 51.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).