Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (25 on the archive and 48 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 960 | 1000 | 44% | 2026-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1046 | 1139 | 37% | 2026-03-16 | | Lost |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2025-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2022-07-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2022-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2021-11-19 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2021-08-08 | | Won |
| 1115 | 1045 | 60% | 2021-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 986 | 70% | 2020-05-17 | | Won |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2020-01-31 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2020-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 909 | 67% | 2019-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 962 | 73% | 2018-06-13 | | Won |
| 1149 | 841 | 85% | 2017-02-11 | | Won |
| 808 | 1226 | 8% | 2016-10-23 | | Lost |
| 692 | 990 | 15% | 2016-09-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 953 | 84% | 2016-06-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2016-02-21 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2015-10-28 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-12-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2014-07-18 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1016 | 53% | 2014-03-05 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1145 | 48% | 2013-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2013-04-13 | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1037.8 vs 1036.5 has a 50.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).