Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (23 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 36
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 980 | 1024 | 44% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1041 | 53% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1055 | 48% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 945 | 1078 | 32% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1136 | 975 | 72% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1204 | 1227 | 47% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1065 | 910 | 71% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1114 | 985 | 68% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1086 | 859 | 79% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 756 | 986 | 21% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1283 | 24% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1283 | 954 | 87% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1283 | 1109 | 73% | 2015-10-28 | Won |
| 1096 | 1120 | 47% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1117 | 26% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1039 | 1037 | 50% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1117 | 1125 | 49% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1101 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1049.9 vs 1059 has a 48.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).