Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (24 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1099 | 40% | 2026-03-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 979 | 51% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 982 | 999 | 48% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1099 | 1024 | 61% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1041 | 54% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 967 | 1055 | 38% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 952 | 1056 | 35% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1009 | 68% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1189 | 1227 | 45% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 998 | 910 | 62% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1113 | 998 | 66% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1094 | 843 | 81% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 755 | 984 | 21% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1263 | 27% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1263 | 1108 | 71% | 2015-10-28 | Won |
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1135 | 24% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1039 | 1031 | 51% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1135 | 1129 | 51% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1101 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1047.8 vs 1061 has a 48.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).