Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (16 on the archive and 42 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 31
Defender wins (American): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1124 | 1074 | 57% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 1095 | 39% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 936 | 1041 | 35% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1056 | 46% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 1015 | 944 | 60% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1129 | 1030 | 64% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 994 | 879 | 66% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1110 | 941 | 73% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 849 | 1223 | 10% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1120 | 1116 | 51% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 933 | 982 | 43% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1058 | 967 | 63% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 982 | 1105 | 33% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1098 | 41% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1027.3 vs 1044.6 has a 47.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).