Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (25 on the archive and 48 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 996 | 1000 | 49% | 2026-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1120 | 37% | 2026-03-16 | | Lost |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2025-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2022-07-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1018 | 47% | 2022-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1040 | 50% | 2021-11-19 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-08-08 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1007 | 66% | 2021-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 987 | 70% | 2020-05-17 | | Won |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2020-01-31 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2020-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1024 | 886 | 69% | 2019-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 962 | 73% | 2018-06-13 | | Won |
| 1150 | 841 | 86% | 2017-02-11 | | Won |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-10-23 | | Lost |
| 692 | 990 | 15% | 2016-09-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 953 | 84% | 2016-06-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2016-02-21 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2015-10-28 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2014-12-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2014-07-18 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1031 | 51% | 2014-03-05 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1145 | 50% | 2013-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2013-04-13 | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1039.2 vs 1035.6 has a 50.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).