The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 15
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1122 | 868 | 81% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 943 | 748 | 75% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1092 | 50% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1121 | 49% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1008 | 991 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1074 | 46% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 729 | 877 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1157 | 853 | 85% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1145 | 1041 | 65% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1017 | 65% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 877 | 877 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 877 | 748 | 68% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1223 | 806 | 92% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1264 | 1141 | 67% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1014 | 1266 | 19% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1125 | 49% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 748 | 1018 | 17% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 917 | 61% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1058 | 57% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 950 | 1017 | 40% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1145 | 1094 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 928 | 1148 | 22% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1110 | 50% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1025.9 vs 1004.8 has a 53.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).