Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (21 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 42
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1018 | 53% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1072 | 67% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1196 | 1169 | 54% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1030 | 67% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1047 | 63% | 2021-05-05 | Lost |
| 955 | 1158 | 24% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1007 | 73% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1110 | 50% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1029 | 1156 | 32% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 978 | 1090 | 34% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 940 | 1138 | 24% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 950 | 1090 | 31% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1090 | 58% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1099 | 977 | 67% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 977 | 1058 | 39% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 1040 | 39% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1163 | 52% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1067 | 56% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1037 | 863 | 73% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1071.5 vs 1068.9 has a 50.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).