Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (21 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 43
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2025-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1187 | 1044 | 69% | 2025-02-21 | | Won |
| 1182 | 1000 | 74% | 2024-09-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2024-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 1000 | 73% | 2022-06-17 | | Won |
| 1049 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1048 | 63% | 2021-05-05 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1133 | 26% | 2020-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1097 | 1061 | 55% | 2020-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2020-04-10 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2018-11-29 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1136 | 29% | 2017-11-16 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1097 | 35% | 2017-09-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2016-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1178 | 1136 | 56% | 2014-04-07 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-12-14 | | Won |
| 987 | 1060 | 40% | 2013-07-16 | | Lost |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2013-06-14 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2013-01-19 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 1071 | 60% | 2012-12-23 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 864 | 75% | 2012-11-17 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1068 vs 1048.6 has a 52.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).