The Terror of the Castle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 10
Attacker wins (Russian): 8
Defender wins (Hungarian (Vannay)): 2
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 692 | 1088 | 9% | 2025-10-20 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1069 | 49% | 2025-06-16 | | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2024-06-10 | | Won |
| 1072 | 968 | 65% | 2022-12-12 | | Won |
| 991 | 991 | 50% | 2021-08-11 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1135 | 62% | 2021-04-15 | | Won |
| 1147 | 850 | 85% | 2019-01-22 | | Won |
| 692 | 990 | 15% | 2015-04-04 | | Won |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2014-04-01 | | Won |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2014-03-21 | | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1005.7 vs 1030.9 has a 46.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).