The Devil's Free to Have a Try
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (28 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 33
Defender wins (Hungarian (Vannay) / German (SS)): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 750 | 1059 | 14% | 2026-10-15 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1150 | 48% | 2026-04-29 | | Won |
| 1069 | 1062 | 51% | 2025-03-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2024-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2024-05-03 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-01-03 | | Lost |
| 692 | 1088 | 9% | 2023-04-06 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2022-04-22 | | Won |
| 1150 | 932 | 78% | 2022-03-26 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2022-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1135 | 62% | 2021-01-21 | | Lost |
| 991 | 991 | 50% | 2020-12-28 | | Won |
| 968 | 1072 | 35% | 2020-07-07 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1088 | 68% | 2019-08-23 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 850 | 85% | 2019-01-02 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2017-08-05 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2017-06-07 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2017-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1240 | 1011 | 79% | 2014-12-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2014-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 876 | 76% | 2014-11-19 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2014-09-15 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 983 | 79% | 2014-06-09 | | Won |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2013-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2012-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2012-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1153 | 1040 | 66% | 2012-06-10 | | Won |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2012-05-27 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1066 vs 1027.4 has a 55.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).