Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 178 (47 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 99
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1110 | 1142 | 45% | 2025-04-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1041 | 47% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1063 | 975 | 62% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 989 | 999 | 49% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 904 | 1015 | 35% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 898 | 941 | 44% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1204 | 963 | 80% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 963 | 1014 | 43% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 975 | 982 | 49% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 941 | 1041 | 36% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1032 | 61% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1027 | 58% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 981 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 945 | 1078 | 32% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1068 | 46% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 981 | 1026 | 44% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1132 | 1072 | 59% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1096 | 1027 | 60% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1256 | 21% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1256 | 945 | 86% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 970 | 1116 | 30% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1026 | 54% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1081 | 42% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1180 | 1173 | 51% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1096 | 63% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1036 | 61% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 913 | 927 | 48% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1111 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1123 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1174 | 998 | 73% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 1024 | 1026 | 50% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1048 | 1117 | 40% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1175 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1058 | 997 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 980 | 1130 | 30% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1180 | 1029 | 70% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 878 | 989 | 35% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1192 | 1105 | 62% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1423 | 993 | 92% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1058 | 962 | 63% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1190 | 59% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 1068 | 1236 | 28% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1173 | 49% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1064.9 vs 1057.2 has a 51.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).