Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44
Attacker wins (Russian): 17
Defender wins (German): 23
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 936 | 1146 | 23% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 977 | 1025 | 43% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 882 | 1011 | 32% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 940 | 919 | 53% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1129 | 996 | 68% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 971 | 1024 | 42% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 1146 | 1074 | 60% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 919 | 1031 | 34% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1032 | 59% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1027 | 55% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 981 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 1015 | 944 | 60% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1038 | 51% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 979 | 931 | 57% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1133 | 1098 | 55% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1103 | 1069 | 55% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1255 | 21% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1255 | 1015 | 80% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 967 | 1140 | 27% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1058 | 46% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1065 | 44% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1276 | 1169 | 65% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1120 | 51% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 888 | 927 | 44% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1115 | 41% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1111 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1141 | 999 | 69% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 1065 | 982 | 62% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1024 | 59% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1067 | 1172 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1056 | 986 | 60% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1276 | 1029 | 81% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 927 | 998 | 40% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1125 | 1074 | 57% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1400 | 992 | 91% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1008 | 966 | 56% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1190 | 67% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 978 | 1141 | 28% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1119 | 44% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1067.2 vs 1055.5 has a 51.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).