By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (24 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (American): 48
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1098 | 1041 | 58% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1176 | 50% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1115 | 1024 | 63% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1029 | 1060 | 46% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1173 | 1102 | 60% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 948 | 1097 | 30% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1005 | 59% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1253 | 30% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 951 | 981 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1096 | 53% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1173 | 1012 | 72% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1012 | 72% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 875 | 1081 | 23% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 1097 | 1263 | 28% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1007 | 958 | 57% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1008 | 1123 | 34% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1058 | 941 | 66% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1140 | 26% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1250 | 1180 | 60% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1107 | 42% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 950 | 957 | 49% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1059 vs 1076.6 has a 47.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).