By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (22 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 47
Defender wins (American): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1128 | 1128 | 50% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1292 | 30% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1123 | 1080 | 56% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 991 | 1049 | 42% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1029 | 1085 | 42% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1122 | 1106 | 52% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 943 | 1081 | 31% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1024 | 60% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1310 | 20% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 952 | 982 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1141 | 47% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1153 | 1041 | 66% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1041 | 66% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 913 | 1014 | 36% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 1019 | 970 | 57% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1110 | 36% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1125 | 876 | 81% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 1249 | 1264 | 48% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1113 | 42% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1018 | 1242 | 22% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 897 | 957 | 41% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1063 vs 1086.6 has a 46.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).