Penny Packets
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59 (18 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2025-06-29 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1135 | 53% | 2024-11-27 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1073 | 70% | 2024-06-22 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 915 | 1135 | 22% | 2021-05-13 | Lost |
| 823 | 884 | 41% | 2021-05-11 | Lost |
| 1048 | 988 | 59% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1187 | 54% | 2018-04-25 | Won |
| 1218 | 1189 | 54% | 2018-04-25 | Won |
| 1121 | 1192 | 40% | 2015-03-15 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2013-12-27 | Won |
| 998 | 938 | 59% | 2013-04-09 | Lost |
| 997 | 1060 | 41% | 2012-06-28 | Won |
| 968 | 1085 | 34% | 2011-08-27 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2011-08-15 | Won |
| 1019 | 1018 | 50% | 2011-06-27 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2011-02-22 | Won |
| 1062 | 1172 | 35% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1067.1 vs 1087.3 has a 47.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).