Messervy's Men
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 105 (24 on the archive and 81 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 49
Defender wins (Italian): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1115 | 34% | 2025-11-30 | | Won |
| 1018 | 1435 | 8% | 2023-06-10 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2022-11-23 | | Won |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-10-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 997 | 50% | 2022-07-09 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2022-02-12 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1010 | 1077 | 40% | 2020-12-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2020-06-14 | | Won |
| 862 | 1097 | 21% | 2019-11-03 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2017-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2017-07-29 | | Won |
| 1007 | 1059 | 43% | 2017-07-29 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1044 | 45% | 2017-04-08 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1089 | 43% | 2015-05-23 | | Won |
| 957 | 1056 | 36% | 2013-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2013-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2012-06-17 | | Won |
| 966 | 1029 | 41% | 2011-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1078 | 63% | 2011-08-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2011-05-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2011-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2011-03-11 | | Won |
| 956 | 1055 | 36% | 2011-02-05 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1001.4 vs 1073 has a 39.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).