The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1085 | 1082 | 50% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 876 | 1069 | 25% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1072 | 37% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 905 | 1029 | 33% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1029 | 1050 | 47% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1068 | 50% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1054 | 1058 | 49% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1150 | 992 | 71% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1113 | 986 | 68% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 1054 | 41% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1138 | 60% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 986 | 1095 | 35% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1274 | 894 | 90% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1419 | 11% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1274 | 38% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1053 | 1178 | 33% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 955 | 75% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1091 | 52% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1138 | 1058 | 61% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1068 | 965 | 64% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1083 | 60% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1079.5 vs 1077.3 has a 50.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).