Der Letzte Geburtstag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (13 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 20
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1078 | 945 | 68% | 2025-06-26 | Lost |
| 1024 | 975 | 57% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1236 | 980 | 81% | 2019-12-28 | Won |
| 959 | 1256 | 15% | 2016-12-30 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1182 | 44% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 941 | 1103 | 28% | 2010-10-06 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1036 | 46% | 2010-05-16 | Won |
| 1148 | 1253 | 35% | 2010-05-02 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2009-12-30 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2009-10-29 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2009-10-29 | Won |
| 1019 | 973 | 57% | 2009-10-23 | Won |
| 1087 | 1058 | 54% | 2009-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1073.3 vs 1082.6 has a 48.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).