Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1076 | 1073 | 50% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1077 | 69% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 1003 | 1123 | 33% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1017 | 76% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 1167 | 46% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 983 | 1143 | 28% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 963 | 51% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1084 | 1039 | 56% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
| 777 | 1141 | 11% | 2010-06-22 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1044.1 vs 1052 has a 48.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).