Swatting a Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 43 (10 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (German): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1051 | 944 | 65% | 2025-06-09 | Lost |
| 945 | 1126 | 26% | 2021-07-17 | Won |
| 933 | 1215 | 16% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1180 | 62% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1219 | 22% | 2013-08-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 963 | 53% | 2013-07-23 | Lost |
| 1165 | 987 | 74% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1130 | 37% | 2011-01-15 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1034 | 57% | 2009-07-31 | Lost |
| 777 | 1140 | 11% | 2009-06-23 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1023.7 vs 1093.8 has a 40.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).