Swatting a Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (9 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1009 | 934 | 61% | 2025-06-09 | Lost |
| 973 | 1017 | 44% | 2021-07-17 | Won |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1260 | 1266 | 49% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1310 | 14% | 2013-08-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 963 | 53% | 2013-07-23 | Lost |
| 1141 | 987 | 71% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1167 | 32% | 2011-01-15 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1025 | 64% | 2009-07-31 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1051.1 vs 1098.7 has a 43.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).