Under the Northern Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 7
Attacker wins (Finnish): 3
Defender wins (German (SS)): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 907 | 1011 | 35% | 2023-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 980 | 53% | 2023-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2022-11-19 | | Won |
| 1007 | 1057 | 43% | 2020-07-30 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2010-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1131 | 37% | 2008-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1141 | 33% | 2008-10-07 | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 995 vs 1045.7 has a 42.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).