Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26
Attacker wins (Canadian): 9
Defender wins (Italian): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 905 | 940 | 45% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1060 | 45% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 979 | 1009 | 46% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1113 | 66% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 933 | 1217 | 16% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 1151 | 928 | 78% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1057 | 982 | 61% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1116 | 39% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1060 | 46% | 2015-01-17 | Won |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1231 | 1326 | 37% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1231 | 1163 | 60% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1071 | 1088 | 48% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1127 | 1142 | 48% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1129 | 1130 | 50% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 862 | 1231 | 11% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1342 | 13% | 2009-03-07 | Won |
| 1137 | 1107 | 54% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1035 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1065 | 42% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1120 | 35% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1140 | 980 | 72% | 2008-10-06 | Won |
| 1230 | 1016 | 77% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1070 | 753 | 86% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1063.6 vs 1082.2 has a 47.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).