Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 118 (26 on the archive and 92 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 49
Defender wins (Italian): 69
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2024-10-14 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2024-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2019-09-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2019-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2018-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2018-03-12 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2017-09-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2017-09-02 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1116 | 39% | 2016-04-19 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1074 | 44% | 2015-01-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2013-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2013-06-13 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2013-04-12 | | Won |
| 1071 | 1092 | 47% | 2013-03-12 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2011-10-08 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1130 | 52% | 2010-12-15 | | Lost |
| 862 | 1219 | 11% | 2009-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1010 | 1343 | 13% | 2009-03-07 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1167 | 46% | 2009-02-03 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1035 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1056 | 44% | 2008-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1120 | 35% | 2008-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 980 | 72% | 2008-10-06 | | Won |
| 1214 | 1000 | 77% | 2008-09-23 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 767 | 82% | 2008-09-20 | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1047.4 vs 1067.2 has a 47.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).