Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (Canadian): 6
Defender wins (Italian): 14
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 919 | 919 | 50% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 978 | 997 | 47% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1129 | 36% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 939 | 1214 | 17% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 1038 | 958 | 61% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1062 | 981 | 61% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1323 | 48% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1310 | 1159 | 70% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 1081 | 48% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1119 | 1148 | 46% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 982 | 1167 | 26% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 917 | 1310 | 9% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1074 | 59% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1030 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1069 | 42% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 929 | 1100 | 27% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1011 | 68% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1051.1 vs 1094.5 has a 43.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).