Farmyard Affray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 25
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 2026-08-14 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1058 | 67% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 949 | 1013 | 41% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 960 | 960 | 50% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 933 | 1161 | 21% | 2026-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1115 | 40% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1115 | 40% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 960 | 1048 | 38% | 2025-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1045 | 44% | 2025-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1064 | 43% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 949 | 66% | 2024-09-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2024-06-23 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2022-10-01 | | Won |
| 939 | 1289 | 12% | 2018-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1134 | 52% | 2013-10-29 | | Won |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2012-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-03-11 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2008-10-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1019.3 vs 1064.9 has a 43.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).